By 2100, half of the world’s population will be African... and South Korea’s population will be halved

It took 123 years for the world’s population to grow from 1 billion (in 1804) to 2 billion (in 1927). It took 33 years to go from 2 billion to 3 billion (1960), and the number of years required for each subsequent 1-billion increase was 14, 13, and—starting in 1987—only 12. It is projected that the population will reach 8 billion by 2023 and 9 billion by 2037 (Source: UN Population Division).

Projections for future global population figures vary by organization, but CNN News reported figures estimated by researchers based on data from the “Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.” According to these researchers, the global population will peak at 9.7 billion in 2064 and then gradually decline to 8.8 billion by 2100. The researchers’ projection for the global population in 2100 is as follows: Starting in 2100, 183 countries are expected to have fertility rates that are insufficient to maintain their current population levels. The population of 23 countries is projected to be halved. In South Korea, the population is expected to decline from 53 million to 27 million.

Furthermore, Africans are projected to account for half of the world’s total population. The population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to triple, rising from 1.03 billion (2017) to 3.07 billion (2100). In North Africa and the Middle East, although not to the same extent as in Sub-Saharan Africa, the population is projected to increase from 600 million (2017) to 978 million (approximately 1 billion) by 2100. When I looked at the current fertility rates of various countries, I also thought that if this trend continues, Africans would make up half of the world’s population. I didn’t know when exactly that would happen, but apparently it will be in 2100.

Furthermore, according to this study’s projections for the global population in 2100, there will be 1.7 billion people under 20, while 2.37 billion will be 65 or older—a world with a large elderly population. The number of people aged 80 and older is expected to increase sixfold, from 141 million (2017) to 866 million (2100). In contrast, the population under the age of 5 is projected to decrease by 40 percent, from 681 million (2017) to 401 million (2100). For more details, click here: https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/14/world/world-population-shrink-intl-scli-scn/

Ultimately, the future of Earth in 2100 will look like this: if we include people from Africa, the Middle East, and India—which wasn’t mentioned in the article—about two-thirds of the world’s population will come from these regions. And with far more elderly people than children (those aged 80 and older will make up 10 percent of the world’s population.  It doesn’t paint a very rosy picture of the future. And even if the population drops to 8.8 billion? That’s still more than today’s population. There are still too many people for Earth to sustain, and it seems likely that many plant and animal species will go extinct by then. Perhaps only scrap metal robots wandering through piles of trash will remain...

07/17/2020 by Dr. Lan Joo